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Chennai Floods – a 360° analysis

06 Dec

Dear Friends,
As we are witnessing the worst floods in the history of Chennai. I took some time today to study the cycle of fury of nature, its impact on social network in the cyber age. I try to establish the connect between floods in Chennai and its impact on already volatile stock market. The conflict of ethics in business and humanity in the context of catastrophe, Geo-political scenario and lastly I conclude with learnings from Chennai Floods.

Chennai Floods: What and Why?
I spent my childhood in Chennai (then Madras). Therefore I have fond memories of my school days attached to it. Madras would have rains followed by cyclones every year during this time. The entire cycle would hardly last for few days to couple of weeks. But its been 18 years since I left Madras (now Chennai) in 1997 (see my journey here). The following video beautifully explains the cause and effect of this relentless rainfall and flood in this metro city in South India.

Internet and Communication Technology to the rescue
With the floods in Chennai, internet is also flooded with Facebook posts, Tweets and images of the catastrophe.  WhatsApp messages has helped connect with friends and loved ones during a disaster.
Facebook has come with a innovative concept of Safety Check – which allows anybody to be marked as safe either by themselves or by their friends.

Chennai-Flooding-FB-Safety-Check

Mobile Operators are not left behind they have given freebies to their customers on worst days of flood, few service providers have come up with location tracking facility to trace any users from their last contact area.

The Hindu – One of India’s oldest newspapers has not been printed for the first time in 137 years due to rains and floods in the southern city of Chennai (Madras) – BBC news

New Business Opportunity:
Ola had launched Ola boats service for the stranded people for easy mobility and transport of essential commodities.

Fundamental Analysis Vs Technical Analysis:
Flood causes sharp drop in the stock market. Due to incessant rains and floods in Chennai and the disruption of normal life and closing down of factories, there is sharp drop in the value of stocks in Chennai-based firms(Details news here). there is also an opportunity for traders (particularly fundamental traders) to cash on the this temporary situations. This has multiplier effect on the the over all stock market this week. The Nifty and Sensex is showing signs of negative sentiments(bearish trend) due to Chennai floods (Details news here).
Technical analyst can observe the bearish engulfing pattern in the weekly chart of some firms in Chennai which is sign of negative sentiments caused due to floods. Below are the weekly/monthly candle stick chart of two firms based out of Chennai. (Source: Investing.com and TopStockResearch.com). This pattern becomes even more evident with the higher volume of trade in the second chart.

PatternStudy-1PatternStudy-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conflict of Ethics in business and humanitarian act:
Amid all the effort of rescue and relief operations there are people who are selling mineral water in the flooded affected areas for Rs.150 per bottle and 1 litre milk for Rs.100. Price of essential commodities were sold at exorbitant prices(News here). Now, some people might argue that money made out this way is unethical. But its seems fair when you let the market forces of demand and supply decide the prices of the goods.

Geo-political scenario:
Relief operation effort has been intensified, Central Government sanctioned 940 crores to TN for the relief work (News here), Donations is pouring in from the business community and noble souls from local and international arena.

On the other side of the globe, we see ISIS has become the richest terrorist group and makes millions per day (Full story here). So its advised that “Never feel bad earning lots of money (in an ethical way), Since more you have, less is left for them, since money in world is finite.”Blood Money

Lessons learnt from Chennai floods:
1. Money never sleeps and neither it guarantees sleep.
2. Business should always be done with mind and service should always be done with heart – Sri Sri
3. Never feel bad for earning lots of money in an ethical way.
4. IQ (Intelligent Quotient) and EQ (Emotional Quotient) are important but most important is SQ (Spiritual Quotient) this helps one to keep one calm in tough times and take a balanced and a wholistic decision.
5. Respect Nature – Humans have still not conquered nature, so better respect it!

Hope it was a good read. If you liked it please leave a comment below as a token of gratitude and if you felt that something could have been done better kindly provide your valuable suggestion.

Cheers!
Vijay Mahawar

 
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Posted by on 6 December, 2015 in Finance, General, Management, MBA at SSU

 

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